The freshest numbers

Disposables rose from 26.0% (Feb 2020) to 58.1% (Jun 16, 2024) of standardized units; unit volume climbed +201.3%. Shelves are crowded too: 6,287 distinct e-cigarette products were logged by mid-2024 and 92.8% of them were disposables. “Smart vapes” with screens (e.g., battery/juice indicators) newly entered the top-10 brands in 2024 national data.

Scanner coverage: Circana/IRI Multi-Outlet + Convenience (excludes vape shops & online). Standardized units = one disposable device, five prefilled cartridges, or one bottle of e-liquid.

How we got here (why disposables keep the lead)

• 2020→2022 mix flip: cartridges fell from 75.2%→48.0% while disposables more than doubled 24.7%→51.8% of unit sales—this pivot still sets today’s shelf logic.
• More liquid per device: 2020→2024 the monthly milligrams of nicotine sold increased ~+249%; by June 2024 a typical disposable carried about 9× the e-liquid of a prefilled cartridge—fewer swaps, bigger baskets.
• Policy headwinds shape channels: California’s flavored-product restriction correlated with a sharp in-state sales drop, while nationally disposables stayed dominant. Enforcement also pushed some unauthorized flavored disposables through c-store/supermarket channels at large scale.

What this means for your muha meds (empty) SKU plan

1) Anchor around 2 g, then layer selectively

2 g minimalist as the workhorse and 2 g with screen to match top-shelf expectations; keep a selective 3 g premium for high-ticket doors. Use 1 g only for entry price points or tight planograms.

2) Don’t over-fragment colorways

With thousands of UPCs already live, launch 3–4 neutral finishes per SKU; scale only after turns and RMA rates are proven.

3) Keep pages claim-safe and docs ready

Position clearly as empty hardware only—no oil, nicotine, or THC. Maintain a “documents on request” bundle (e.g., logistics test summaries such as UN38.3 where cells are in equipment, packaging specs) to expedite procurement without making finished-goods claims.

TOFU FAQ (for buyers landing here)

Is the disposable trend slowing?

Not in tracked brick-and-mortar: disposables hold the majority of standardized unit sales and dominate product variety.

Do we need a screen model?

Yes—“smart” disposables with indicators are now among national top brands; offer one screened and one minimalist shell at the same capacity.

What about compliance risk in c-stores?

National reports still show substantial sales of unauthorized flavored disposables in mainstream channels; plan packaging/copy conservatively and align channels with counsel.